Betting on Hope: What We Got Wrong About the U.S. Border Crisis
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
4:00 PM UTC – 5:00 PM UTC
Hosted by The Fletcher School
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About this event
Faculty research lunch presentation by Prof. Katrina Burgess on “Betting on Hope: What We Got Wrong About the U.S. Border Crisis”
Description: I draw on prospect theory to explain why U.S. “prevention through deterrence” policies raised the human and financial costs of migration without reliably stopping people from coming during the Biden administration. Based on fieldwork with migrants along the migrant route from Colombia to the U.S. border in summer 2023, I illustrate how hope, fear, faith, and shifting information shaped migrants’ risk calculations, often leading them to discount the dangers of the journey while overestimating the chance of reaching safety or opportunity in the United States.
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